Filed under: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, Uncategorized
By Wes Yee
2010 was a year of serious emergence in baseball. Much hyped prospects Buster Posey of the Giants and Jason Heyward of the Braves stepped forward and established themselves as bona fide stars. St. Louis’ Jaime Garcia threw up a sub 3 ERA and Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez nearly won the MVP.
This season there’s a whole new list of players primed to make an impact. While perhaps the biggest names in the prospect world (Bryce Harper and Mike Trout) may not see major league time this season, there is a group of young players who will influence playoff races.
1. Jesus Montero, Yankees – This beastly catcher has drawn comparisons to Frank Thomas and Miguel Cabrera in the batter’s box. He improved consistently as a 20 year old in AAA in ’10 and should break camp with the team thanks to the injury to Francisco Cervelli. While his defense has drawn serious long term questions, Montero has a cannon arm and is blocked only by a declining Russell Martin and the hobbled Jorge Posada. An injury (not unlikely given their histories) to either would open up full time at bats for Montero. With a healthy and reinforced Red Sox lineup, Montero’s bat will be counted on to provide additional offense in an aging lineup. If he succeeds early, Yankees Manager Joe Girardi will have no choice but to find a place for him to play.
2. Michael Pineda, Mariners – Baseball Reference lists the intimidating Pineda at 6’5, 180. Reports from Spring Training, however, have him at 6’7, 260. He’s a flamethrowing righthander who can touch the high 90’s. Opponents hit just .227 against him in the minors and he showed good control. Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro has to be upset that he picked Phillipe Aumont over Pineda when trading Cliff Lee after the 2009 season. Pineda has shown that he’s ready now, and he too should break camp with the major league club.
3. Brandon Belt, Giants – Belt led the minors in hitting and OPS in 2010 and has held his own in Spring Training. Giants management has already announced that he’ll hit 7th if he breaks camp with the club, and even if he doesn’t, he’ll be up by June. While it’s his bat that entices people, his defense is outstanding, starting with an arm that touched 93 mph in high school. He moves well and could offer a consistent RBI man with 20-30 HR power. Think of Belt as a first baseman in the Todd Helton mold. Athletic with a great approach and ability to hit for average.
4. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Twins – Nishioka won the Pacific League batting title in 2010 and is known for plus speed. He’ll be an integral part of a contender in Minnesota, playing up the middle for a strong defensive team. Don’t expect any power, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t hit at least .300 with 25 steals.
5. Manny Banuelos, Yankees – Banuelos won’t break camp with New York, but he should be in the majors sometime this summer. He’s a lefty who sits in the low 90’s and can touch 95. He has outstanding command and major league capable off speed pitches. The major concern with Banuelos is workload, he’s never gone more than seven innings in a game or 108 innings in a season. This could work out for the Yankees though, as limiting his workload early could conserve some innings for the big league club upon his call up. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him break in as a reliever, a la Aroldis Chapman.
6. Jake McGee, Rays – McGee was one of the top starting pitching prospects in the minors in 2008 when he blew out his elbow. He moved to the bullpen last year and showed a high 90’s fastball. With Rafael Soriano and the rest of the Rays bullpen gone, McGee is expected to step in and pitch crucial innings. He’ll be a big reason behind the Rays success or failure in 2011.
7. Freddie Freeman, Braves – Freeman has received a decent amount of hype already, as he’s been photographed as a Jason Heyward sidekick. He’ll open the season as the starting first baseman and will be counted on to fill the void left by Chipper Jones’ youth and Derrek Lee’s departure. He’s strong athletically and I expect to see an Ike Davis type rookie season.
8. Julio Teheran, Braves – Teheran, the minors’ top pitching prospect, sits in the 94-96 mph range and throws a dominating changeup. He’s just 20 years old and will probably start the season in AAA. His stuff is elite and if Atlanta gets desperate due to injury in the rotation or ineffectiveness in the bullpen you could see him get a callup. Atlanta’s bullpen lacks experience after the retirement of Billy Wagner and their rotation includes Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson, two older pitchers.
9. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays -Hellickson has been much discussed. He has a relatively low ceiling compared to the other pitchers on this list but is also more proven than any of the others. He’ll be the #4 or #5 starter but really slots in behind David Price as the Rays second best pitcher.
10. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians – Chisenhall isn’t big at 6’1, 200 but hit for good power in 2010 (17 HR in 460 AB) and tore up Spring Training this year. He’s been sent to minor league camp, but that was before Jason Donald injured his hand. Jack Hannahan, Jason Nix and Luis Valbuena should start the season at third for the Tribe, but none have the pedigree or staying power that Chisenhall will offer once he’s called up, likely in May or June – late enough to delay his arbitration clock.
Filed under: Boston Red Sox, Hobby, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers
By Wes Yee
Spring training is underway and it’s time to start prepping for the baseball season. That means pulling those jerseys, t-shirts and hats out of the closet and… updating your Twitter following? Social media is here to stay and the game of baseball has jumped in with both feet. Without further ado, six ways that social media can improve your baseball experience:
1. Following your favorite players on Twitter – This one’s obvious. If you’re on Twitter, odds are that you already do this. If not, it’s a great gateway into the value of the tool. Following your favorite (or least favorite) players gives you a glimpse into their day to day lives and personalities previously unavailable to all but those in the clubhouses. My favorite player on Twitter is Giants closer Brian Wilson. Major League Baseball has compiled a list of big leaguers with Twitter accounts here: http://twitter.com/#!/MLB/players/members
2. Getting the latest in team news – More and more news is broken every day on Twitter. Baseball news is no exception. You’ll hear about transactions, rumors and lineup updates on Twitter hours or days before you see them updated on the team websites or even on major media websites.
3. Interacting with beatwriters and team personnel – This could have fallen under the previous heading but the interaction factor makes this it’s own point. Twitter has become the best way to get the insights that you want, in some cases on demand. Many beatwriters and even some team personnel will answer questions and seek answers to the questions posed to them from the Twitterverse. There’s nothing better than getting instant analysis from a reporter like Peter Gammons, Buster Olney, Keith Law or Jim Callis.
4. In game updates and intelligence – This one seemed counterintuitive to me for quite some time. I didn’t buy a ticket to a game to stare at my cellphone. That said, I flip flopped on this big time during the Red Sox – Giants series at AT&T park last summer. Then Victor Martinez took a foul tip off the thumb and left the game. Now without social media I’d have no clue what happened. Luckily though, I pulled out my trusty HTC Hero and quickly reported what I found – that Martinez had gone for X-Rays on his thumb. In any game situation with confusion you want to know what happened, if you’re at home you’ve got a reporter there to inform you. With social media, that reporter is accessible to you in the ballpark.
5. Ticket Specials – Discounts and marketing is prevalent on Twitter and Facebook. While this can at times get annoying, it can also work out well for you as a baseball fan. Teams like the Giants often alert their Twitter followers and Facebook “likers” of special ticket deals and promotional events via social media. These events often sell out quickly, and learning instantly rather than waiting for an email can save the average fan a good deal of stress and money.
6. Comedy – The baseball season is ever so long and it’s always nice to break up the monotony with a little hardball themed humor. Social media is great for this, my favorite sources are:
Old Hoss Radbourne – Self described as a “Pitching deity; dapper gent.” This deceased HOF brings the snark to sports analysis. His tough guy tweets are highly enjoyable.
Cyborg Hanson 48 – This “HIGH VELOCITY AUTOMATON PROGRAMMED TO THROW HUMAN BASE BALL” machine brings the humor in binary tones that never cease to entertain.
Deadspin – If I need to explain this, you’re probably not a big sports fan.
By Wes Yee (@WesYee)
Free Agent Right Fielder and apparent Grand Larcenist Jayson Werth kicked off his December by signing an astounding 7 year, $126 million contract with the Washington Nationals. Werth, one of the top available free agents, gets an incredible raise from his two-year $10 million contract that expired last month. It’s a deal that’s already proven to have an impact on the landscape of the 2010-2011 MLB offseason.
Count the Red Sox as immediately affected in a multitude of ways. Most apparent of course is the swift reversal on the Adrian Gonzalez negotiations. The sides appeared to be at an impasse after a day of negotiations. Boston seemed to hold firm on it’s 6 year extension while Gonzalez’ camp demanded 8 years. When MLB’s soft negotiating deadline passed, the deal appeared stalled. Then, the Werth news broke. Just hours later the Red Sox announced a press conference for a Monday morning “major baseball announcement” – likely the completion of the Gonzalez deal.
Why the speedy change of heart? The Werth deal sets a new market on star hitters. In what appears to be a pitchers’ era, elite level hitters are a hotter commodity than ever. If Werth, by all accounts the second best outfielder – and an inferior player than Gonzalez – can command $126 million, what can top-15 players like Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee net? Had Boston waited for Crawford and Lee to sign $160 million deals, the price on Gonzalez could have been driven even higher than the rumored $20-23 million a year for 8 years that his camp was demanding Saturday.
Reactions to the Werth deal:
Pros: Werth led the National League in doubles last season and showed a strong glove and ability to hit in the clutch. He’s won a World Series (in 2008 with Philadelphia) and should be solid presence behind Ryan Zimmerman. He brings some speed (53 steals over the last three seasons) and has been worth $22.9, $22 and $20 million over the past three seasons according to Fangraphs’ Dollars Value Metric.
Cons: Werth is not an elite power or average hitter, and profiles best as a #5 or #6 hitter. He’s never been the focal point of a lineup, and has never driven in 100 runs – despite playing for an offensive juggernaut. He’s 31 which means when the contract is up he’ll be 38. How many 38-year-olds without plus power or a plus bat do you see even starting in a major league outfield these days?
Overall: It’s an incomprehensible deal for a 31-year-old outfielder with just three full seasons at the big league level. Werth’s value heading into this offseason appeared to mirror Mets’ OF Jason Bay’s last season. Bay, who put up better numbers than Werth in 2009, signed with New York for $66 million over 4 years, with a fifth year option. Washington appears to be poised to make a run at several players, behind their billionaire owners, the Lerners. It’s truly shocking that Washington was unable to find the cash for Adam Dunn, a better run producer than Werth. General thought seems to be that 7/$126 would have been enough for Crawford – a better, and younger option. According to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, “The #Nationals offer on Werth was so far above everyone else that Boras didn’t even ask other interested teams if they wanted to match it.”
Filed under: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers
By Wes Yee (@WesYee)
The Mariners traded Cy Young winner Cliff Lee Friday, shipping the surgical left handed south to the first place Rangers. Texas sent top prospect Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Matthew Lawson back to Seattle.
Texas gets a legitimate ace for the remainder of 2010. Lee, who has dominated the AL after starting the season on the DL, makes the Rangers the prohibitive favorite in a division that they were already leading. However Lee is likely a rental, Texas’ ownership situation is in flux and even in good times the team has not been the top level free agent destination that New York or Boston have been.
Seattle comes up big here with Smoak. Smoak, the Rangers top pick in 2008, is a cornerstone first baseman who should anchor the Mariners lineup for years to come. Beavan is a hard throwing righty who has shown some promise. The Mariners robbed Philadelphia in the offseason, giving up just J. C. Ramírez, Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies. None are close to the caliber of a prospect that Smoak is. Even Aumont, the centerpiece of Philadelphia’s end, is not considered to be significantly better than Beavan, the secondary piece. If you line up the prospect hauls that the Phillies got and compare it to Smoak alone the deal is laughable.
But despite all of this, New York is the winner. That’s right, the Yankees, who failed to execute what looked like a done deal earlier in the day, are the winner in this trade. The Yankees were poised to send top prospect Jesus Montero and others to Seattle, only to have the trade fall through based on injury concerns of minor leaguer David Adams, the secondary piece that would have come along with Montero. So why are they the winners?
This year: The Yankees are STILL the team to beat in the AL, having put together the best record in a division that has seen both Tampa Bay and Boston fade in and out – Boston due to injuries and Tampa Bay due to inconsistent play. Most media sources have New York atop their power rankings with their current rotation of Sabathia, Hughes, Pettitte, Burnett and Vazquez. This team remains the prohibitive favorite to win the World Series in 2010. And no, I’m not trying to put the jinx on. Okay maybe I am. Also, Lee going to Texas means that neither the Rays nor the Red Sox add the dominant left hander.
Next offseason: Lee WILL be a free agent, which gives New York a chance to pursue him without giving up Montero. The team will have slightly MORE leverage, as Lee wouldn’t have created any goodwill in pinstripes that could force their hand. Either way, money isn’t an issue and if New York wants him they’ll get him.
Further down the line: Lee would make an excellent lefty combo with former teammate Sabathia for the next 5-6 years – whatever his next contract gives him. But the real value of this trade falling apart for New York is that Montero remains in New York. Montero, who has an 80 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) power and for some scouts hit tool, is just 20 years old and is already in AAA. Coming into 2010 he was considered the premiere bat outside of Michael Stanton and Jason Heyward. Consider those he was ranked above – Buster Posey, Brennan Boesch, Carlos Santana, Austin Jackson, Pedro Alvarez, Smoak, Starlin Castro.
Montero has been compared to Frank Thomas and Miguel Cabrera, a hitter with the ability to hit for high average and league leading type power. New York can use him at catcher, but more than likely he’ll end up as a DH for them down the line, as long as Mark Teixiera is at first. A bat of his caliber just doesn’t come around often, and the three months of Cliff Lee that they lose out on will be repaid many times over with big seasons from Montero.
The Dugout Report 